Three Longshot NFL Bets for 2026: Broncos Super Bowl Win & More

The NFL season is knocking on the door, and some juicy futures picks are popping off the page. Here are three long shots I am most interested in for 2026!

Three Long-Shot NFL Bets for 2026

George Pickens to Lead NFL in Receiving TDs (+2500)

Dallas is going to score points. You can attach whatever negative stigma you want to Dak Prescott, but the Cowboys were one of the NFL’s most efficient offenses last season and finished near the top of the league in EPA per play.

They play their home games in a dome. They have Dak, CeeDee Lamb, George Pickens, and Jake Ferguson. There is real talent here, and this offense has the potential to light it up every week.

Pickens is especially appealing at 25-to-1 because of his usage. He tied for the second-most end-zone targets in the NFL last season with 18 and tallied nine receiving touchdowns. He did that despite posting only a 21% target share.

Dallas threw at the 10th-highest rate inside the 20-yard line last year and at the eighth-highest rate when leading by at least a touchdown. If you believe the Cowboys will be good—and I do—those tendencies create plenty of scoring opportunities.

Pickens also led Dallas skill players in snaps inside the 20. Add in his ability to turn a broken play into a monster touchdown, and you have a player with a real path to leading the league in receiving scores. Dak has some of the tightest odds to lead the NFL in touchdown passes, so oddsmakers believe they’ll be chucking the pigskin into the end zone.

Broncos to Win the Super Bowl (+2000)

Give me Denver at 20-to-1.

The Broncos are somehow underrated. I am not the biggest Bo Nix truther in the world, but he has certainly developed, and he has an amazing supporting cast.

Denver has one of the best offensive lines in football, an elite defense, and a roster that can win in several ways. Last season, the Broncos ranked 10th in offensive EPA per play and seventh defensively. Those are the types of underlying numbers that belong to legitimate contenders.

The addition of Jaylen Waddle makes the offense much more interesting. He bolsters a receiver room co-headlined by steady-Eddie Courtland Sutton, while the Broncos also have enough running backs to drive fantasy managers crazy in the way Mike Shanahan backfields used to.

Denver is also a miserable place to play in January. If the Broncos can secure home-field advantage—or even just host a playoff game at altitude—I will feel very good about their chances against anyone.

Twenty-to-one feels a little too long. I would have expected something closer to 15-to-1.

Brock Bowers to Win Offensive Player of the Year (+6500)

Now we get to the true long shot.

Brock Bowers at +6500 to win Offensive Player of the Year is not likely. That is why the price exists. But if you zoom out, there is a reasonable path for a small wager.

Bowers is just two years removed from catching 112 passes for 1,194 yards and five touchdowns as a rookie. He is a rare player at the position, potentially generational if he stays healthy.

Now he gets Klint Kubiak, an offensive mind who helped unlock Jaxon Smith-Njigba in Seattle and should understand exactly how to build an offense around his best player. The Raiders did very little to materially improve their receiving corps outside of adding Jalen Nailor, leaving Bowers with a clear opportunity to dominate targets.

The Raiders could also live in negative game scripts. That is not ideal for wins, but it can be excellent for pass-catching volume. If Bowers gets peppered with targets, finds a little touchdown luck, and pushes for 1,200-plus yards with double-digit scores, the conversation gets interesting in a hurry.

It would be unorthodox for a tight end to win this award. But Bowers is not a typical tight end. At 65-to-1, that is enough for me to take a swing.