Using ADP to Find the Best Dynasty Fantasy Football Buy Candidates: Lamar Jackson, DeVonta Smith And More

When I first started playing dynasty fantasy football in 2020, it felt like an entirely different game. 

Every team was looking for any reason to give up their rookie picks and compete for a championship. I’ll never forget the first trade I ever made: sending my next three rookie first-round picks for George Kittle. It felt like an absolute steal at the time—You’re telling me I can trade these ‘picks’ that score zero points for my team and get back the best tight end in the league?! I felt like I’d discovered an infinite money glitch.

Did I win the league the season I traded for Kittle? Yes.

Did that one trade decimate the future of my franchise and send me into a multi-year rebuild? Also yes.

ADP Helps to Uncover Dynasty Buy Candidates

Looking back in hindsight and knowing what I know now, it would have been sharper to take a different approach to making trades rather than spamming offers of my future picks. It just felt like that was the meta at the time: If you weren’t willing to sacrifice your future for the chance at a championship ring, someone else would.

Over the past six years, the dynasty landscape has drastically shifted. As the format has gotten more and more popular, there is infinitely more content available. There are endless resources like trade calculators and league analyzers out there just begging to be used.

While I admit the approach we took back in the early days of the format wasn’t optimal, I fear the pendulum has swung too far in the opposite direction.

Managers are overindexed on the theoretical ‘value’ of their rosters. For instance:

• Moving off a player as soon as they turn 28 to keep the average team age down.
• Being scared to make a trade unless all 7 online trade calculators they use say they’re clearly winning.
• Always looking at the “next” rookie class two years out (you know, the one that’s supposed to be the best in decades and consistently disappoints)

In my experience, this mindset almost always leads to teams being stuck on the “treadmill of mediocrity”—finishing anywhere from 5th-7th year after year. Never competitive enough to win the championship, but never bad enough to earn that No. 1 overall pick.

All of this to say … I think there’s a more optimal way to play the game of dynasty.

You can retain your team’s overall value, while still rostering productive veteran options and competing on a yearly basis! This is the approach I’ve tried to take in my leagues over recent years, and it’s resulted in nearly a 100% playoff rate and a 35% win rate across my competing rosters.

Every year around this time of the offseason, I look at the data to figure out which players are the best contending trade targets from a “bang for your buck” perspective. To do so, I compare seasonal (redraft) ADP to dynasty startup ADP—superflex format for both, as that’s the only format of dynasty I play. But even if you play 1QB, you can still look at the differences in position ranking to determine values. 

By comparing these fantasy football ADPs, we can identify which players have the highest "value multipliers," which I define as:

Dynasty Startup ADP / SF Redraft ADP = Value Multiplier

For instance, take Daniel Jones, who comes off the board at 107.2 in dynasty startups over the past month, and 43.7 in superflex redraft:

107.2 / 43.7 = 2.45

Meaning Daniel Jones is viewed as roughly 2.5x more valuable in 2026 redraft than he is in dynasty. 

It’s up to us (me, you, whoever is managing the team) to determine whether this value is justified. Is the player old and viewed as mainly a one-year production bet? Or is there a legitimate market inefficiency here? Both can be valid reasons to buy, but it’s important to try and apply context as to why this value exists.

I could go on forever about the theory behind this stuff, but let’s just jump into my favorite buys for contending dynasty teams going into 2026 based on value. I’m going to organize these into two sections per position—Premium and Bargain—along with a note on the team situations where I’d be especially interested in buying the player: 

Quarterbacks to Buy in Dynasty

Premium:

• When I’d Buy: On any team where I need a strong QB1, have an excess of other assets (mid/low tier QBs, depth at RB/WR/TE, surplus picks) and can afford to consolidate

Lamar Jackson  | Redraft ADP: 3.0 (QB2) | Dynasty ADP: 13.2 (QB5) | Value Multiplier: 4.4x

Believe it or not, it seems Lamar is starting to fall out of that tier of “untouchable” first-round startup assets. He’s only 29 years old, and I have a hard time believing we won’t see him return to elite fantasy production—the redraft expectation for 2026 and his dynasty price don’t line up. If you need an elite QB, this is the guy to target over the likes of Allen/Maye/Daniels, etc., when it comes to value.

Jalen Hurts  | Redraft ADP: 8.8 (QB6) | Dynasty ADP: 27.6 (QB9) | Value Multiplier: 3.1x

Even if you do not believe Jalen Hurts is an elite real-life quarterback, you can’t deny the fantasy ceiling (and floor) he provides on a yearly basis. Unless you think he’s at legitimate risk of losing a starting job over the next several years (I don’t) this dynasty price is a massive value.

Bargain:

• When I’d Buy: On any team where I need affordable help at QB, while recognizing the production window may be shorter 

Kyler Murray | Redraft ADP: 28.9 (QB17) | Dynasty ADP: 86.9 (QB22) | Value Multiplier: 3.0x

Kyler is my favorite bargain-buy at the QB position going into 2026. He’s priced right around options like Matthew Stafford. I believe Murray offers not only a higher fantasy ceiling this season, but also a better chance of being a longer-term option if he produces in 2026.

Malik Willis | Redraft ADP: 38.7 (QB21) | Dynasty ADP: 103.3 (QB26) | Value Multiplier: 2.7x

I view Willis very similarly to how I view Murray. Both project extremely well as fantasy options in 2026 given their rushing ability, with a ceiling to offer more than one season of elite production if they hold the starting jobs past 2026. Both are extremely cheap in dynasty relative to where they are being selected in seasonal leagues.

Running Backs to Buy in Dynasty

Premium:

• When I’d Buy: Teams where I’ve built out the QB/WR positions effectively and can afford to treat these RBs as the final infinity stone to a lethal 2026 championship push

Christian McCaffrey | Redraft ADP: 13.9 (RB3) | Dynasty ADP: 38.5 (RB10) | Value Multiplier: 2.8x

Derrick Henry | Redraft ADP: 31.7 (RB8) | Dynasty ADP: 72.5 (RB21) | Value Multiplier: 2.3x

Saquon Barkley | Redraft ADP: 29.4 (RB7) | Dynasty ADP: 50.9 (RB15) | Value Multiplier: 1.7x

Lumping these three guys together because they all fit the same build/team need. Of the three, my favorite buy right now would be McCaffrey (although being honest, the time to buy him was probably a month or two ago before everyone started checking back in for the season). He just projects as a truly game-breaking option when healthy.

Bargain:

• When I’d Buy: On a Zero-RB roster where I want cheap RB production/high-upside dart throws at the position

Tony Pollard | Redraft ADP: 95.5 (RB30) | Dynasty ADP: 142.1 (RB40) | Value Multiplier: 1.5x

Of the cheap veteran RBs, Pollard is my favorite target. He projects as the RB1 for the Titans in 2026 and I could see him having a longer shelf life than some of the other guys in his range (i.e. Aaron Jones and J.K. Dobbins)

MarShawn Lloyd | Redraft ADP: 163.1 (RB49) | Dynasty ADP: 234.7 (RB66) | Value Multiplier: 1.4x

Lloyd is a really interesting one to me, because he doesn’t really fit the same bill as the rest of these guys. This truly feels like one of the larger dynasty market exploits right now, as it seems like the dynasty community as a whole hasn’t caught up with the idea that Lloyd could make a real impact in 2026.

Wide Receivers to Buy in Dynasty

Premium:

• When I’d Buy: Any team. These feel like awesome bets to gain value and I’d be comfortable taking shots regardless of my current team.

DeVonta Smith | Redraft ADP: 59.8 (WR13) | Dynasty ADP: 63.7 (WR23) | Value Multiplier: 1.1x

DeVonta Smith is one of my favorite buys across the entire dynasty landscape right now. I’ve talked extensively about him all offseason so I’ll keep it brief, but I really think he could ascend into true mid/high-end WR1 range without AJB opposite him this season. And he’s only 27 years old!

Jayden Reed | Redraft ADP: 116.4 (WR37) | Dynasty ADP: 130.3 (WR49) | Value Multiplier: 1.1x

Not sure Jayden Reed really fits in the “premium” buy section, but he’s another really intriguing option who is going much higher in seasonal leagues than in dynasty—and he’s also not old! We’ve seen Reed display a legitimately insane fantasy ceiling (2024 Week 1 against the Eagles, anyone?) and feels like an awesome bet at his current cost.

Bargain:

• When I’d Buy: When my team is a legit contender, but could use additional flex pieces (or simply depth) to make a push in 2026

Chris Godwin | Redraft ADP: 121.5 (WR40) | Dynasty ADP: 143.6 (WR54) | Value Multiplier: 1.2x

Stefon Diggs | Redraft ADP: 139.3 (WR49) | Dynasty ADP: 172.9 (WR65) | Value Multiplier: 1.2x

Grouping these two guys together because they feel like very similar bets as well. Two receivers who project super well and you could immediately throw them in your starting lineup for extremely cheap. What else could you ask for from a good contending dynasty buy?

Tight Ends to Buy in Dynasty

Sticking to only bargain-bin TEs, because there aren’t really any good values among the top-end tight ends currently.

Bargain:

• When I’d Buy: Any team where I need cheap TE production. Pretty straightforward.

Dalton Schultz | Redraft ADP: 166.0 (TE19) | Dynasty ADP: 193.7 (TE26) | Value Multiplier: 1.2x

Schultz has quickly become one of my favorite buys across any position in dynasty right now. He’s almost completely free and he finished as the TE9 in xFPPG last season for Houston. The Texans just lost Jayden Higgins for the season and it’s looking like they’re set to rely on him heavily again in 2026.

Dallas Goedert | Redraft ADP: 144.8 (TE15) | Dynasty ADP: 157.6 (TE20) | Value Multiplier: 1.1x

Goedert used to be a fade for me in dynasty when he was younger, but as he’s aged it’s felt like he’s consistently underpriced season after season. A.J. Brown is gone, he has minimal competition from a pure TE standpoint (sorry, Eli Stowers truthers) and the touchdown upside is insanely high.

Remember the reason we play this silly little game: it’s not about having the highest value team on KeepTradeCut or winning every trade. It’s about winning CHAMPIONSHIPS!