NFL Bold Predictions For 2026: Are The Ravens Bound To Bust?

We're now just one week away from the 2026 NFL regular season. 

I can't wait to crack open that first Mike's Hard Lemonade while watching some Sunday football on Xfinity.

A few days ago, I published a piece on my 32 favorite bets for the 2026 NFL season. It's a banger. Check it out.

In this piece, I touch on three bold predictions for the season.

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The Philosophy of a Bold Prediction

For my full thoughts, check out a previous piece of mine on bold calls.

Here, I want to try to boil down my "bold call philosophy" to a few bullet points.

• A bold call should be about something unlikely (no more than a 25% probability).
• Ideally, a bold call is about something meaningful so that it has an actionable impact.
• With bold calls, I care more about general directionality than pure accuracy. 
   

I will likely be wrong about two of these bold calls. Maybe all three.

But if I'm directionally correct on two, I'll be pleased.

And if I hit the bull's-eye on one, I'll be tickled. 

So let's get into it!

Three Bold Predictions For The 2026 NFL Season

Ravens Miss the Playoffs

• Odds: +305 (DraftKings)
• Implied Probability: 24.7%

Haha, just below my 25% threshold. Perfect.

I feel the need to say this: I think that Lamar Jackson and the Ravens are good. Jackson could win MVP, and the Ravens could win the Super Bowl.

I could look very, very stupid (stupider than usual) with this bold call at the end of the season.

But Jackson was the highlighted player in my 2026 Freedman's Fades article, and in my best bets article I called out the Ravens' win total of under 10.5 (+125).

For better or worse (probably worse), I see some downside with the Ravens this year.

Let's start with Jackson.

He's now 29 years old. As a runner, he might be slowing down (last year he had a career-low 26.8 rushing yards per game), and his rushing ability is his true superpower. Without it, he would likely be a very different (and less effective) player.

On top of that, Jackson doesn't have the build of a typical NFL QB. With his slight frame (6-foot-2, 205 pounds), he might be more susceptible to injury, and the fact that he has missed 4+ games in three of the past five seasons doesn't suggest otherwise.

If Jackson were to slow down this year or miss more than a couple of games, the Ravens could be in trouble.

And then there's the new playcaller, OC Declan Doyle.

At 30 years old, the dude is barely older than Jackson … and he has never called plays before. What if he and Jackson don't get along? What if, in transitioning from the grizzled Todd Monken to the Backstreet Boy-looking Doyle, the star player feels he knows more than his OC and constantly feuds with him?

That might not happen, but let's not act as if it's impossible. We're entering the world of the unknown, and that's especially the case with HC Jesse Minter.

On the one hand, Minter is a well-respected defensive coach. On the other hand, he has never been an HC before.

Say whatever you want about previous HC John Harbaugh and Monken, but at least with them we know what we had. We could project with more certainty.

With Minter, Doyle, and an aging Jackson in a new offensive system, we have ample ambiguity.

Again, lots could go right with this team. In order to create our NFL Game Model (Week 1 lines are now live!) I first build baseline projections for every offense and defense, and I have the Ravens as one of just three teams to rank in the top eight on both offense and defense.

But I think those rankings are based on assumptions that should be loosely held, whereas the market is currently treating the Ravens as a locked-in Super Bowl contender.

Jordan Love to Win Most Valuable Player

• Odds: +2200 (FanDuel)
• Implied Probability: 4.35%

In my best bets article, I highlighted Matthew Stafford to win MVP at +1400, and I do like that bet … but it doesn't feel especially bold to say that the dude who won MVP last year and is the QB for the team with the best odds to win the Super Bowl this year will once again win the award.

So I'm pivoting here to Jordan Love, whom I think is one of the league's most underappreciated QBs.

Love impressed in 2023 in his first starting season (4,159 yards, 32 TDs passing), and since then he has improved as a passer (8.1 AY/A vs. 7.4).

HC Matt LaFleur is a strong play designer and schemer (even if he's not a great playcaller).

WRs Christian Watson and Jayden Reed are playmakers, and WR Matthew Golden took a significant step forward this season as a second-year first-rounder.

TE Tucker Kraft is a top-five player at the position.

And in my NFL model, I have the Packers projected with the No. 4 offense entering the season.

Over the past three seasons, the Packers are No. 5 in offensive yards per play (5.8) as well as EPA per play (0.096, per RBs Don't Matter). 

If the offense stays stable while allowing Love to drop back a few more times per game, and if the defense surprises (as any defense can occasionally do for a season), then the Packers could take the NFC North and turn Love into a legit MVP candidate.

Vikings to Win Super Bowl

• Odds: +5000 (BetMGM)
• Implied Probability: 1.96%

As I said in my best bets piece: What if HC Kevin O'Connell can turn Kyler Murray (who has already flashed in his career as the 2019 Offensive Rookie of the Year) into another version of 2024 Sam Darnold?

In that case, we'd have a highly efficient passer paired with a strong playcaller and supported by a top-six defense.

In other words: We might have another version of the 2025 Seahawks.